KBOI / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

78%

76%

72%

62%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 79.0¢Risks 79.00u

HRESNO 21.0¢Risks 21.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.00u · HRES −21.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T03:07:15+00:00	11.8%	60.8%	53.2%	83.1%	53.7%
2026-10-08T03:52:35+00:00	11.8%	60.8%	53.2%	83.1%	53.7%
2026-10-08T04:37:42+00:00	11.8%	60.8%	53.2%	83.1%	53.7%
2026-10-08T05:22:51+00:00	11.8%	60.8%	64.2%	83.1%	53.7%
2026-10-08T06:08:00+00:00	11.8%	60.8%	64.2%	83.1%	53.7%
2026-10-08T06:53:05+00:00	11.8%	60.8%	64.2%	83.1%	53.7%
2026-10-08T07:39:20+00:00	7.8%	60.8%	64.2%	25.7%	68.4%
2026-10-08T08:24:46+00:00	7.8%	60.8%	64.2%	25.7%	68.4%
2026-10-08T09:09:52+00:00	7.8%	60.8%	64.2%	25.7%	68.4%
2026-10-08T09:54:59+00:00	7.8%	60.8%	64.2%	25.7%	68.4%
2026-10-08T10:40:07+00:00	7.8%	60.8%	64.2%	25.7%	68.4%
2026-10-08T11:25:34+00:00	7.8%	60.4%	16.5%	25.7%	68.4%
2026-10-08T12:10:46+00:00	7.8%	60.4%	16.5%	25.7%	68.4%
2026-10-08T12:55:53+00:00	7.8%	60.4%	16.5%	25.7%	68.4%
2026-10-08T13:41:20+00:00	28.5%	60.4%	16.5%	25.7%	68.4%
2026-10-08T14:30:46+00:00	28.5%	60.2%	16.5%	25.7%	68.4%
2026-10-09T03:19:49+00:00	98.0%	59.8%	48.2%	51.8%	81.5%
2026-10-09T04:05:10+00:00	98.0%	59.8%	48.2%	51.8%	81.5%
2026-10-09T04:50:16+00:00	98.0%	59.8%	48.2%	51.8%	81.5%
2026-10-09T05:35:23+00:00	98.0%	59.8%	68.7%	51.8%	81.5%
2026-10-09T06:20:30+00:00	98.0%	59.8%	68.7%	51.8%	81.5%
2026-10-09T07:05:35+00:00	98.0%	59.8%	68.7%	51.8%	81.5%
2026-10-09T07:51:47+00:00	95.5%	59.8%	68.7%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00	95.5%	59.8%	68.7%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00	95.5%	59.8%	68.7%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00	95.5%	59.8%	68.7%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00	95.5%	59.8%	68.7%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:00	95.5%	59.8%	68.7%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T12:23:22+00:00	95.5%	75.6%	68.7%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00	95.5%	75.6%	68.7%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00	97.5%	75.5%	68.7%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T14:42:11+00:00	97.5%	75.5%	68.7%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T15:28:00+00:00	97.5%	75.6%	68.7%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T16:13:23+00:00	97.5%	75.6%	68.7%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T16:58:30+00:00	97.5%	75.6%	71.6%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00	97.5%	75.6%	71.6%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T18:28:42+00:00	97.5%	75.6%	71.6%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T19:13:46+00:00	97.5%	75.6%	71.6%	59.6%	77.5%
2026-10-09T19:58:58+00:00	96.3%	75.6%	71.6%	61.6%	78.0%
2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00	96.3%	75.6%	71.6%	61.6%	78.0%
2026-10-09T21:29:31+00:00	96.3%	75.6%	71.6%	61.6%	78.0%
2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00	96.3%	75.6%	71.6%	61.6%	78.0%
2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00	96.3%	75.6%	71.6%	61.6%	78.0%
2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00	96.3%	75.6%	71.6%	61.6%	78.0%
2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00	96.3%	75.6%	71.6%	61.6%	78.0%
2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00	96.3%	75.6%	71.6%	61.6%	78.0%
2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00	96.4%	75.6%	71.6%	61.6%	78.0%
2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00	96.4%	75.6%	71.6%	61.6%	78.0%
2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00	96.4%	75.6%	71.6%	61.6%	78.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	70.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	78%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	65.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	63.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	63.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-09 15:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	62.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261014-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 08 · 03:07 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗