KBOI / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDLow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 11 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 5.5¢Risks 1.36u

EPSNO 94.5¢Risks 23.64u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.64u · EPS −23.64u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	6.0%	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	7.6%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	3.2%	9.3%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	1.8%	17.5%	1.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	0.9%	4.8%	0.2%	—	2.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	2.2%	3.9%	0.1%	—	3.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	1.4%	0.7%	6.9%	—	4.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	3.4%	0.2%	6.6%	—	3.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	1.4%	0.6%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	0.8%	0.5%	4.3%	—	4.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.1%	0.9%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	0.5%	0.7%	6.6%	—	4.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	0.3%	1.0%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.2%	0.7%	2.9%	—	4.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	0.1%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	0.3%	0.5%	3.4%	—	4.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.4%	0.2%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.1%	0.3%	0.4%	—	5.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	—	5.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.3%	0.1%	1.0%	92.0%	3.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.1%	0.1%	1.2%	—	2.5%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	91.0%	2.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	—	1.9%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	81.8%	0.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	—	0.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	57.2%	0.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.4%	7.7%	0.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	10%	38.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	38.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	39.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	6%	39.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	38.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	43.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	40.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261014-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Boise freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗