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KBOI / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDLow ≤ 32°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 11 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
10%
AIFS
9%
HRES
8%
ICON
<1%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 5.5¢Risks 1.36u
VS
EPSNO 94.5¢Risks 23.64u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.64u · EPS −23.64u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS HRES: 7.5% · 2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:0010-11 07:3210-11 09:0310-11 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:008.6%0.6%10.3%7.5%0.7%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:008.6%0.6%10.3%7.5%0.7%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:008.6%0.6%10.3%7.5%0.7%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:008.6%0.6%10.3%7.5%0.7%
2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:008.6%0.6%10.3%7.5%0.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 210%38.2°F4.5°F2026-10-10 18:00Pending
AIFS Single9%38.1°F4.1°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
IFS HRES8%39.7°F5.0°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
NWS forecast6%39.0°F4.2°F2026-10-11 02:00Pending
National Blend3%38.0°F3.0°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
ICON<1%43.6°F4.5°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%40.1°F3.0°F2026-10-10 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261014-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Boise freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗