KBOI / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

84%

82%

65%

48%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 73.8¢Risks 73.75u

WN2NO 26.2¢Risks 26.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +26.25u · WN2 −26.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	1.2%	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	7.6%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.2%	8.8%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	65.1%	14.5%	7.4%	—	54.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	35.0%	68.3%	72.8%	—	75.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	92.4%	74.2%	78.9%	92.2%	—	77.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	82.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	30.1%	66.3%	92.8%	—	86.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	77.5%	84.3%	85.7%	—	87.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	5.9%	82.7%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	77.2%	83.3%	87.4%	—	90.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	83.4%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	88.1%	91.7%	91.4%	—	92.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	94.4%	89.1%	97.7%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	83.5%	96.6%	99.4%	—	92.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	85.4%	95.3%	—	—	94.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	84.9%	96.7%	95.1%	—	95.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	85.0%	97.0%	—	—	96.2%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	83.8%	96.7%	97.7%	—	97.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	94.6%	87.7%	97.8%	0.1%	—	97.6%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	90.6%	98.1%	98.5%	—	97.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	90.8%	98.9%	98.0%	—	96.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	90.0%	98.9%	98.8%	61.1%	97.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	89.7%	98.5%	98.8%	—	98.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	95.4%	89.9%	98.8%	99.1%	64.4%	97.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	91.9%	99.0%	98.6%	—	97.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	95.6%	98.5%	98.7%	77.8%	98.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.3%	95.2%	98.2%	98.2%	—	98.5%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	93.9%	97.8%	98.2%	92.3%	97.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	92.1%	97.7%	98.3%	—	99.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	76.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	84%	70.4°F	6.9°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	69.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	65.9°F	6.4°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 15:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	63.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261015-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 08 · 11:25 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗