KBOI / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

84%

82%

65%

48%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 73.8¢Risks 73.75u

WN2NO 26.2¢Risks 26.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +26.25u · WN2 −26.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T11:25:34+00:00	5.9%	53.4%	12.8%	15.3%	9.3%
2026-10-08T12:10:46+00:00	5.9%	53.4%	12.8%	15.3%	9.3%
2026-10-08T12:55:53+00:00	5.9%	53.4%	12.8%	15.3%	9.3%
2026-10-08T13:41:20+00:00	36.7%	53.4%	12.8%	15.3%	9.3%
2026-10-08T14:30:46+00:00	36.7%	53.4%	12.8%	15.3%	9.6%
2026-10-08T15:16:22+00:00	36.7%	53.4%	12.8%	15.3%	9.6%
2026-10-08T16:01:36+00:00	36.7%	53.4%	12.8%	15.3%	9.6%
2026-10-08T16:46:42+00:00	36.7%	53.4%	12.8%	15.3%	9.6%
2026-10-08T17:31:47+00:00	36.7%	53.4%	12.8%	15.3%	9.6%
2026-10-08T18:16:53+00:00	36.7%	53.4%	12.8%	15.3%	9.6%
2026-10-08T19:01:57+00:00	36.7%	53.4%	12.8%	15.3%	9.6%
2026-10-08T19:47:08+00:00	43.6%	53.4%	12.8%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-08T20:32:16+00:00	43.6%	53.4%	12.8%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-08T21:17:27+00:00	43.6%	53.4%	12.8%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-08T22:02:34+00:00	43.6%	53.4%	12.8%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-08T22:47:39+00:00	43.6%	53.4%	12.8%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-08T23:32:53+00:00	43.6%	53.4%	34.2%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-09T00:17:59+00:00	43.6%	53.4%	34.2%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-09T01:03:10+00:00	43.6%	53.4%	34.2%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-09T01:48:29+00:00	84.7%	53.4%	34.2%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-09T02:33:37+00:00	84.7%	53.4%	34.2%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-09T03:19:49+00:00	84.7%	53.4%	34.2%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-09T04:05:10+00:00	84.7%	53.4%	34.2%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-09T04:50:16+00:00	84.7%	53.4%	34.2%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-09T05:35:23+00:00	84.7%	53.4%	35.7%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-09T06:20:30+00:00	84.7%	53.4%	35.7%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-09T07:05:35+00:00	84.7%	53.4%	35.7%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-10-09T07:51:47+00:00	70.9%	53.4%	35.7%	61.4%	57.5%
2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00	70.9%	53.4%	35.7%	61.4%	57.5%
2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00	70.9%	53.4%	35.7%	61.4%	57.5%
2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00	70.9%	53.4%	35.7%	61.4%	57.5%
2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00	70.9%	53.4%	35.7%	61.4%	57.5%
2026-10-09T11:37:54+00:00	70.9%	53.4%	35.7%	61.4%	57.5%
2026-10-09T12:23:22+00:00	70.9%	65.2%	35.7%	61.4%	57.5%
2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00	70.9%	65.2%	35.7%	61.4%	57.5%
2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00	89.1%	65.2%	35.7%	61.4%	58.0%
2026-10-09T14:42:11+00:00	89.1%	65.2%	35.7%	61.4%	58.0%
2026-10-09T15:28:00+00:00	89.1%	64.6%	35.7%	61.4%	58.0%
2026-10-09T16:13:23+00:00	89.1%	64.6%	35.7%	61.4%	58.0%
2026-10-09T16:58:30+00:00	89.1%	64.6%	48.2%	61.4%	58.0%
2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00	89.1%	64.6%	48.2%	61.4%	58.0%
2026-10-09T18:28:42+00:00	89.1%	64.6%	48.2%	61.4%	58.0%
2026-10-09T19:13:47+00:00	89.1%	64.6%	48.2%	61.4%	58.0%
2026-10-09T19:58:58+00:00	98.2%	64.6%	48.2%	81.9%	84.1%
2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00	98.2%	64.6%	48.2%	81.9%	84.1%
2026-10-09T21:29:31+00:00	98.2%	64.6%	48.2%	81.9%	84.1%
2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00	98.2%	64.6%	48.2%	81.9%	84.1%
2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00	98.2%	64.6%	48.2%	81.9%	84.1%
2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00	98.2%	64.6%	48.2%	81.9%	84.1%
2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00	98.2%	64.6%	48.2%	81.9%	84.1%
2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00	98.2%	64.6%	48.2%	81.9%	84.1%
2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00	99.3%	64.6%	48.2%	81.9%	84.1%
2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00	99.3%	64.6%	48.2%	81.9%	84.1%
2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00	99.3%	64.6%	48.2%	81.9%	84.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	76.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	84%	70.4°F	6.9°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	69.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	65.9°F	6.4°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 15:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	63.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261015-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 08 · 11:25 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗