KBOI / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

83%

77%

77%

76%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 87.0¢Risks 87.00u

ICONNO 13.0¢Risks 13.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +13.00u · ICON −13.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	68.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	4.0%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	4.5%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	51.4%	7.9%	3.6%	—	40.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	22.6%	54.4%	59.4%	—	62.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	60.6%	66.3%	84.9%	—	64.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	17.9%	50.8%	85.5%	—	76.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	63.1%	72.1%	74.2%	—	76.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	91.2%	2.3%	69.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	62.1%	70.1%	75.9%	—	81.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	91.2%	69.8%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	76.3%	82.2%	81.6%	—	82.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	77.6%	93.6%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	68.7%	91.0%	97.7%	—	83.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	70.9%	88.1%	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.5%	69.7%	90.6%	87.2%	—	87.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.0%	69.3%	91.2%	—	—	89.4%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	66.9%	90.1%	92.7%	—	91.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	85.2%	72.4%	92.5%	0.0%	—	92.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	76.7%	93.2%	94.3%	—	92.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	76.6%	95.5%	92.6%	—	89.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	74.4%	95.1%	94.8%	36.5%	91.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	73.1%	93.6%	94.7%	—	92.3%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	72.7%	94.3%	95.4%	38.1%	90.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	75.8%	95.0%	93.3%	—	90.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	83.7%	92.7%	93.2%	51.4%	93.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	81.9%	90.8%	90.8%	—	92.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	77.4%	89.0%	90.4%	73.7%	87.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	71.9%	87.7%	90.1%	—	94.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	75.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	69.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	69.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	69.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	76%	69.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	66%	67.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261015-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 10 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗