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KBOI / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
98%
WN2
83%
HRES
77%
EPS
77%
ICON
76%
Consensus
82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 87.0¢Risks 87.00u
VS
ICONNO 13.0¢Risks 13.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +13.00u · ICON −13.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-10T14:54:10+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-10T15:39:33+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-10T16:24:40+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-10T17:09:48+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-10T17:55:11+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-10T18:40:23+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-10-10T19:25:37+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-10-10T20:10:47+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-10-10T20:56:24+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-10-10T21:41:31+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.7% · 2026-10-10T14:54:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-10T15:39:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-10T16:24:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-10T17:09:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-10T17:55:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-10T18:40:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-10T19:25:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-10T20:10:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-10T20:56:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-10T21:41:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-10T14:54:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-10T15:39:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-10T16:24:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-10T17:09:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-10T17:55:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-10T18:40:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-10T19:25:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-10T20:10:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-10T20:56:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-10T21:41:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-10T14:54:10+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-10T15:39:33+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-10T16:24:40+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-10T17:09:48+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-10T17:55:11+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-10T18:40:23+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-10T19:25:37+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-10T20:10:47+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-10T20:56:24+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-10T21:41:31+00:00IFS HRES: 77.2% · 2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00IFS HRES: 77.2% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 77.2% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00IFS HRES: 77.2% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00IFS HRES: 77.2% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00IFS HRES: 77.2% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00IFS HRES: 77.2% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-10T14:54:10+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-10T15:39:33+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-10T16:24:40+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-10T17:09:48+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-10T17:55:11+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-10T18:40:23+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-10T19:25:37+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-10T20:10:47+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-10T20:56:24+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-10T21:41:31+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:0010-10 14:5410-10 20:5610-11 02:59
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T14:54:10+00:0097.5%76.7%76.0%72.9%36.7%
2026-10-10T15:39:33+00:0097.5%76.9%76.0%72.9%36.7%
2026-10-10T16:24:40+00:0097.5%76.9%76.0%72.9%36.7%
2026-10-10T17:09:48+00:0097.5%76.9%82.7%72.9%36.7%
2026-10-10T17:55:11+00:0097.5%76.9%82.7%72.9%36.7%
2026-10-10T18:40:23+00:0097.5%76.9%82.7%72.9%36.7%
2026-10-10T19:25:37+00:0097.7%76.9%82.7%72.9%76.3%
2026-10-10T20:10:47+00:0097.7%76.9%82.7%72.9%76.3%
2026-10-10T20:56:24+00:0097.7%76.9%82.7%72.9%76.3%
2026-10-10T21:41:31+00:0097.7%76.9%82.7%72.9%76.3%
2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:0097.7%76.9%82.7%77.2%76.3%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:0097.7%76.9%82.7%77.2%76.3%
2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:0097.7%76.9%82.7%77.2%76.3%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:0097.7%76.9%82.7%77.2%76.3%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:0097.7%76.9%82.7%77.2%76.3%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:0097.7%76.9%82.7%77.2%76.3%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:0097.7%76.9%82.7%77.2%76.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single98%75.3°F4.9°F2026-10-10 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 283%69.3°F4.0°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
IFS HRES77%69.8°F5.8°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble77%69.0°F4.8°F2026-10-10 00:00Pending
ICON76%69.7°F5.9°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
National Blend66%67.0°F3.6°F2026-10-10 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%66.0°F5.1°F2026-10-10 14:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261015-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 10 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗