KBOI / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

42%

38%

28%

12%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.9¢Risks 39.85u

ICONNO 60.1¢Risks 60.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.15u · ICON −60.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	0.6%	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	19.9%	1.1%	0.4%	—	13.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	4.8%	21.0%	24.9%	—	27.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	24.5%	29.6%	53.0%	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	2.7%	16.4%	52.4%	—	39.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	23.8%	32.2%	34.5%	—	36.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	0.1%	28.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	21.4%	28.4%	34.6%	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	27.1%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	33.0%	40.9%	40.0%	—	41.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	33.5%	63.0%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	23.2%	54.9%	78.2%	—	40.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	24.1%	47.0%	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	21.9%	51.0%	43.9%	—	44.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	20.5%	51.1%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	17.6%	46.7%	53.3%	—	51.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	20.6%	51.1%	0.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	23.3%	51.2%	54.6%	—	48.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	21.6%	57.2%	47.6%	—	39.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	18.2%	53.7%	52.5%	2.8%	42.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	15.8%	46.1%	50.0%	—	42.3%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	14.1%	46.0%	50.0%	2.4%	35.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	14.7%	45.8%	40.3%	—	32.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	20.2%	35.8%	37.2%	3.7%	38.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	16.2%	28.5%	28.5%	—	31.1%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	11.0%	22.6%	25.0%	8.9%	20.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	6.8%	18.1%	21.6%	—	30.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	72.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	69.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	70.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	69.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	67.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	66.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261015-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗