KBOI / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

42%

38%

28%

12%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.9¢Risks 39.85u

ICONNO 60.1¢Risks 60.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.15u · ICON −60.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:20+00:00	71.1%	28.6%	28.6%	44.7%	28.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	71.1%	28.6%	35.0%	44.7%	28.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	71.1%	28.6%	35.0%	44.7%	28.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	71.1%	28.6%	35.0%	44.7%	28.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	71.1%	28.6%	35.0%	44.7%	28.1%
2026-10-13T08:04:14+00:00	72.9%	28.6%	35.0%	46.1%	14.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	72.9%	28.6%	35.0%	46.1%	14.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	72.9%	28.6%	35.0%	46.1%	14.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	72.9%	28.6%	35.0%	46.1%	14.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:25+00:00	72.9%	39.2%	32.6%	46.1%	14.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	72.9%	39.2%	32.6%	46.1%	14.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	72.9%	39.2%	32.6%	46.1%	14.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	72.9%	39.2%	32.6%	46.1%	14.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	69.6%	39.2%	32.6%	46.1%	14.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	69.6%	33.5%	32.6%	46.1%	14.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	69.6%	33.6%	32.6%	46.1%	14.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	69.6%	33.6%	32.6%	46.1%	14.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	69.6%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	14.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	69.6%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	14.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	69.6%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	14.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	74.5%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	74.5%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	74.5%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	74.5%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	74.5%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	74.5%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	74.5%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	74.5%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	67.9%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	67.9%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-14T03:00:03+00:00	67.9%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00	67.9%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	67.9%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	67.9%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	67.9%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	67.9%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	21.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	68.4%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	12.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	68.4%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	12.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	68.4%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	12.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	68.4%	33.6%	25.9%	46.1%	12.2%
2026-10-14T10:34:30+00:00	68.4%	33.6%	25.9%	38.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T11:21:01+00:00	68.4%	27.6%	41.9%	38.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	68.4%	27.6%	41.9%	38.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	68.4%	27.6%	41.9%	38.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	67.5%	27.6%	41.9%	38.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	67.5%	27.8%	41.9%	38.4%	12.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	72.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	69.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	70.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	69.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	67.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	66.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261015-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗