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KBOI / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
20%
HRES
7%
EPS
2%
ICON
2%
WN2
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 10.9¢Risks 5.43u
VS
WN2NO 89.1¢Risks 44.57u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.57u · WN2 −44.57u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.5% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.2% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.8% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 14.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 24.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.1% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.6% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.1% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0009-30 12:0010-08 06:0010-15 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:004.8%—————
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:0048.4%————31.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:003.5%—————
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:0017.2%————25.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:0027.0%—————
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:000.2%————30.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:0023.6%—————
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:009.8%—————
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:0022.8%—11.2%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:008.1%————12.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:002.4%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:001.8%————9.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:0026.5%————9.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:0019.7%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:004.0%————6.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:006.9%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0020.8%————5.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0025.5%—0.0%———
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0012.2%————5.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0017.3%—0.0%——1.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:008.2%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:002.3%————11.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:002.5%—3.4%———
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.6%—0.0%——4.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——4.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——1.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.2%———
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.1%2.9%0.0%0.0%—1.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:002.3%—0.9%———
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.3%2.8%3.8%—4.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:002.8%—6.2%———
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0014.6%3.3%4.6%14.2%—4.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0024.7%—5.4%———
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0020.1%0.1%1.5%12.7%—6.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0015.8%—6.8%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0016.2%2.5%4.3%4.9%—5.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0015.7%0.0%3.3%——0.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0010.9%1.7%2.9%4.3%—6.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0013.0%2.5%5.7%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:009.0%3.4%5.3%5.0%—5.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:006.7%3.2%13.7%——0.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:005.4%1.4%9.0%24.7%—4.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:004.4%1.4%5.7%——4.4%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:003.8%1.0%6.4%4.4%—4.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:003.0%0.8%5.8%——4.7%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.9%0.5%4.2%5.9%—5.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:001.9%0.6%4.8%0.0%—4.5%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:002.5%0.7%4.2%5.1%—3.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:001.2%0.5%5.1%3.1%—1.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.9%0.3%3.7%3.5%0.0%2.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.7%0.2%2.1%2.6%—1.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.4%0.1%1.7%2.2%0.0%0.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%1.4%1.0%—0.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.5%0.6%0.0%0.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%—0.3%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%—0.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single20%72.9°F4.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
IFS HRES7%69.9°F4.5°F2026-10-12 12:00Pending
NWS forecast5%71.0°F3.4°F2026-10-13 03:00Pending
National Blend4%71.0°F3.2°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%68.2°F4.1°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
ICON2%68.2°F4.0°F2026-10-12 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%69.2°F3.4°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261015-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 09 · 19:58 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗