KBOI / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.9¢Risks 5.43u

WN2NO 89.1¢Risks 44.57u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.57u · WN2 −44.57u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T19:58:58+00:00	35.9%	4.9%	0.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00	35.9%	4.9%	0.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-09T21:29:31+00:00	35.9%	4.9%	0.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00	35.9%	4.9%	0.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00	35.9%	4.9%	0.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00	35.9%	4.9%	0.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00	35.9%	4.9%	0.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00	35.9%	4.9%	0.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00	50.0%	4.9%	0.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00	50.0%	4.9%	0.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-10T03:31:25+00:00	50.0%	4.9%	0.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-10T04:17:49+00:00	50.0%	4.9%	0.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-10T05:03:10+00:00	50.0%	4.9%	4.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-10T05:48:18+00:00	50.0%	4.9%	4.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:33:23+00:00	50.0%	4.9%	4.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:00	50.0%	4.9%	4.2%	14.4%	18.9%
2026-10-10T08:03:37+00:00	44.3%	4.9%	4.2%	14.4%	1.2%
2026-10-10T08:48:42+00:00	44.3%	4.9%	4.2%	14.4%	1.2%
2026-10-10T09:33:47+00:00	44.3%	4.9%	4.2%	14.4%	1.2%
2026-10-10T10:19:01+00:00	44.3%	4.9%	4.2%	14.4%	1.2%
2026-10-10T11:04:11+00:00	44.3%	5.4%	4.2%	14.4%	1.2%
2026-10-10T11:49:17+00:00	44.3%	5.4%	4.2%	14.4%	1.2%
2026-10-10T12:34:22+00:00	44.3%	5.4%	4.2%	14.4%	1.2%
2026-10-10T13:19:28+00:00	44.3%	5.4%	4.2%	14.4%	1.2%
2026-10-10T14:05:00+00:00	38.7%	5.7%	4.3%	14.3%	1.3%
2026-10-10T14:54:11+00:00	38.7%	5.9%	4.3%	14.3%	1.3%
2026-10-10T15:39:33+00:00	38.7%	5.7%	4.3%	14.3%	1.3%
2026-10-10T16:24:40+00:00	38.7%	5.7%	4.3%	14.3%	1.3%
2026-10-10T17:09:48+00:00	38.7%	5.7%	3.7%	14.3%	1.3%
2026-10-10T17:55:11+00:00	38.7%	5.7%	3.7%	14.3%	1.3%
2026-10-10T18:40:23+00:00	38.7%	5.7%	3.7%	14.3%	1.3%
2026-10-10T19:25:37+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	3.7%	14.3%	12.3%
2026-10-10T20:10:47+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	3.7%	14.3%	12.3%
2026-10-10T20:56:24+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	3.7%	14.3%	12.3%
2026-10-10T21:41:31+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	3.7%	14.3%	12.3%
2026-10-10T22:27:58+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	3.7%	12.2%	12.3%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	3.7%	12.2%	12.3%
2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	3.7%	12.2%	12.3%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	3.7%	12.2%	12.3%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	3.7%	12.2%	12.3%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	3.7%	12.2%	12.3%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	3.7%	12.2%	12.3%
2026-10-11T03:45:21+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	3.7%	12.2%	12.3%
2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	3.7%	12.2%	12.3%
2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	4.9%	12.2%	12.3%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	4.9%	12.2%	12.3%
2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00	40.3%	5.7%	4.9%	12.2%	12.3%
2026-10-11T07:32:35+00:00	32.4%	5.7%	4.9%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	32.4%	5.7%	4.9%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	32.4%	5.7%	4.9%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	32.4%	5.7%	4.9%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T10:34:16+00:00	32.4%	5.7%	4.9%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00	32.4%	2.3%	3.5%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	32.4%	2.3%	3.5%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	32.4%	2.3%	3.5%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	37.2%	2.3%	3.5%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	37.2%	2.3%	3.6%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T15:12:06+00:00	37.2%	2.0%	3.6%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	37.2%	2.0%	3.6%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	37.2%	2.0%	3.6%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	37.2%	2.0%	2.8%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	37.2%	2.0%	2.8%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	37.2%	2.0%	2.8%	6.9%	12.3%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	30.9%	2.0%	2.8%	9.3%	9.4%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	30.9%	2.0%	2.8%	9.3%	9.4%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	30.9%	2.0%	2.8%	9.3%	9.4%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	30.9%	2.0%	2.8%	9.3%	9.4%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	30.9%	2.0%	2.8%	9.3%	9.4%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	30.9%	2.3%	1.5%	9.3%	9.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	30.9%	2.3%	1.5%	9.3%	9.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	30.9%	2.3%	1.5%	9.3%	9.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	27.1%	2.3%	1.5%	9.3%	9.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	27.1%	2.3%	1.5%	9.3%	9.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	27.1%	2.3%	1.5%	9.3%	9.5%
2026-10-12T04:01:55+00:00	27.1%	2.3%	1.5%	9.3%	9.5%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	27.1%	2.3%	1.5%	9.3%	9.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	20.2%	2.1%	1.5%	7.0%	1.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	20.2%	2.1%	1.5%	7.0%	1.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	20.2%	2.1%	1.5%	7.0%	1.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	20.2%	2.1%	1.5%	7.0%	1.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	20%	72.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	69.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	71.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	68.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	2%	68.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	69.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261015-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 09 · 19:58 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗