KBOI / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

67%

62%

57%

46%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.1¢Risks 64.10u

WN2NO 35.9¢Risks 35.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.90u · WN2 −35.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.1%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.0%	33.0%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	29.8%	47.9%	0.1%	—	46.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	0.5%	7.6%	67.0%	—	60.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	77.8%	38.7%	17.9%	88.2%	—	52.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	0.1%	68.4%	74.5%	—	65.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	43.4%	81.0%	82.7%	—	67.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	1.0%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	50.9%	77.9%	95.3%	—	62.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	48.2%	78.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.3%	40.9%	77.7%	77.7%	—	70.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	47.2%	78.3%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	51.9%	77.5%	85.3%	—	75.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	55.0%	83.6%	—	—	78.9%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	57.2%	84.9%	83.7%	—	79.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	57.4%	85.0%	—	—	75.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	55.5%	87.5%	85.7%	—	76.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.3%	56.7%	82.5%	0.0%	—	77.7%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	54.6%	83.2%	85.3%	31.0%	74.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	57.2%	84.0%	87.4%	—	75.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	52.5%	84.9%	87.6%	27.6%	80.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	50.0%	88.5%	86.5%	—	80.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.3%	54.0%	85.1%	86.6%	36.8%	78.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	56.9%	85.3%	83.6%	—	81.8%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	61.4%	86.2%	89.8%	45.7%	87.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	78.7%	63.3%	88.0%	94.0%	—	86.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	60.9%	90.4%	89.0%	68.3%	81.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	54.9%	88.5%	89.3%	—	86.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	77.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	62%	74.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	73.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	72.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261016-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗