KBOI / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

67%

62%

57%

46%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.1¢Risks 64.10u

WN2NO 35.9¢Risks 35.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.90u · WN2 −35.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T15:12:06+00:00	94.4%	56.5%	67.2%	64.2%	61.3%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	94.4%	56.5%	67.2%	64.2%	61.3%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	94.4%	56.5%	67.2%	64.2%	61.3%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	94.4%	56.5%	59.8%	64.2%	61.3%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	94.4%	56.5%	59.8%	64.2%	61.3%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	94.4%	56.5%	59.8%	64.2%	61.3%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	84.6%	56.5%	59.8%	66.8%	62.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	84.6%	56.5%	59.8%	66.8%	62.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	84.6%	56.5%	59.8%	66.8%	62.0%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	84.6%	56.5%	59.8%	66.8%	62.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	84.6%	56.5%	59.8%	66.8%	62.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	84.6%	56.6%	46.1%	66.8%	62.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	84.6%	56.6%	46.1%	66.8%	62.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	84.6%	56.6%	46.1%	66.8%	62.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	82.1%	56.6%	46.1%	66.8%	62.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	82.1%	56.6%	46.1%	66.8%	62.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	82.1%	56.6%	46.1%	66.8%	62.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	77.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	62%	74.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	73.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	72.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261016-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗