KBOI / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 16 · 12:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

62%

58%

35%

16%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.8¢Risks 50.85u

ICONNO 49.2¢Risks 49.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.15u · ICON −49.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.0%	21.8%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	18.9%	34.3%	0.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	0.2%	3.6%	52.9%	—	45.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	25.1%	9.7%	78.9%	—	37.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	0.0%	53.2%	60.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	27.9%	67.8%	70.0%	—	51.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	0.3%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	33.8%	62.9%	89.1%	—	45.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	31.0%	63.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	24.4%	61.8%	61.8%	—	52.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	29.2%	62.1%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	33.0%	60.6%	71.3%	—	57.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	35.3%	68.3%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	36.9%	69.7%	67.9%	—	62.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	36.5%	69.3%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	34.1%	72.7%	69.9%	—	56.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	34.6%	64.3%	0.0%	—	57.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	32.0%	64.8%	68.0%	14.0%	53.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	33.6%	65.3%	70.7%	—	53.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	28.7%	65.8%	70.2%	11.2%	58.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	25.9%	70.9%	67.5%	—	57.7%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	28.4%	64.4%	66.9%	15.7%	54.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	30.0%	63.7%	61.0%	—	58.3%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	33.1%	64.2%	70.7%	20.2%	66.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	33.8%	66.2%	78.7%	—	63.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	30.3%	69.7%	66.8%	37.6%	54.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	24.1%	64.5%	66.1%	—	61.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	85%	77.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	75.3°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	75.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	71.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261016-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗