KBOI / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 16 · 12:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

37%

32%

18%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.7¢Risks 35.70u

ICONNO 64.3¢Risks 64.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.30u · ICON −64.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.0%	13.2%	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	10.9%	22.4%	0.0%	—	21.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	0.0%	1.5%	38.5%	—	31.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	14.6%	4.6%	66.3%	—	23.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.0%	37.5%	44.4%	—	34.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	15.7%	51.7%	54.2%	—	35.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	0.1%	51.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	19.6%	45.6%	78.6%	—	29.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	17.2%	45.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	12.4%	43.6%	43.6%	—	34.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	15.4%	43.4%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	17.7%	41.3%	52.9%	—	38.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	19.0%	49.0%	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	19.7%	50.0%	47.9%	—	41.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	19.0%	48.9%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	16.9%	52.2%	48.9%	—	35.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	16.8%	42.2%	0.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	14.7%	41.9%	45.4%	4.8%	31.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	15.2%	41.6%	47.6%	—	30.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	11.8%	41.3%	46.3%	3.3%	34.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	9.8%	46.1%	42.3%	—	32.5%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	10.7%	38.1%	40.7%	4.6%	28.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	11.1%	36.3%	33.8%	—	31.2%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	12.2%	35.8%	42.8%	5.9%	38.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	12.0%	36.6%	51.5%	—	33.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	9.6%	39.1%	36.1%	13.4%	25.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	6.3%	32.4%	33.9%	—	29.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	77.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	75.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	75.3°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	71.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261016-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 09 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗