KBOI / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

66%

65%

64%

54%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 69.4¢Risks 69.40u

HRESNO 30.6¢Risks 30.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +30.60u · HRES −30.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	51.9%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	48.0%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	31.8%	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	46.5%	28.6%	3.2%	—	59.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	78.0%	90.7%	—	72.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	42.4%	83.5%	87.1%	—	71.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	58.7%	74.5%	82.6%	—	69.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	45.8%	85.7%	78.1%	—	77.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	2.2%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.1%	49.1%	77.9%	78.6%	—	78.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	52.7%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	59.1%	91.0%	77.0%	—	82.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	79.0%	60.3%	93.0%	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.4%	61.5%	92.1%	83.5%	—	85.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	63.7%	90.8%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	67.0%	89.7%	81.0%	—	85.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	66.5%	91.2%	—	—	85.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.1%	67.9%	91.9%	70.8%	0.0%	89.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.7%	67.5%	92.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	84.7%	71.0%	92.4%	71.0%	—	87.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	71.7%	93.0%	68.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	87.6%	78.3%	92.5%	74.4%	53.7%	92.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	89.1%	80.0%	93.2%	70.9%	—	93.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	78.0%	91.1%	54.0%	54.0%	91.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	82.7%	93.8%	65.0%	—	93.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	90.5%	96.0%	60.1%	70.7%	97.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	96.8%	90.1%	96.8%	88.0%	—	96.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	82.9%	97.4%	86.6%	76.2%	92.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	96.3%	79.7%	95.9%	90.8%	—	95.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	85%	77.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	74.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	74.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	75.0°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	73.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	73.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261017-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗