KBOI / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

47%

40%

40%

36%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.9¢Risks 51.90u

HRESNO 48.1¢Risks 48.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.10u · HRES −48.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:27:59+00:00	90.5%	40.5%	51.6%	41.9%	54.0%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00	90.5%	40.5%	53.2%	41.9%	54.0%
2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00	90.5%	40.5%	53.2%	41.9%	54.0%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	90.5%	40.5%	53.2%	41.9%	54.0%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00	91.7%	40.5%	53.2%	41.9%	54.0%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	91.7%	40.5%	53.2%	41.9%	54.0%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	91.7%	40.5%	53.2%	41.9%	54.0%
2026-10-11T15:12:07+00:00	80.3%	39.8%	63.8%	44.5%	54.0%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	80.3%	39.8%	63.8%	44.5%	54.0%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	80.3%	39.8%	63.8%	44.5%	54.0%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	80.3%	39.8%	53.5%	44.5%	54.0%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	80.3%	39.8%	53.5%	44.5%	54.0%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	80.3%	39.8%	53.5%	44.5%	54.0%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	66.8%	39.8%	53.5%	36.3%	47.1%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	66.8%	39.8%	53.5%	36.3%	47.1%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	66.8%	39.8%	53.5%	36.3%	47.1%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	66.8%	39.8%	53.5%	36.3%	47.1%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	66.8%	39.8%	53.5%	36.3%	47.1%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	66.8%	39.8%	40.4%	36.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	66.8%	39.8%	40.4%	36.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	66.8%	39.8%	40.4%	36.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	67.5%	39.8%	40.4%	36.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	67.5%	39.8%	40.4%	36.3%	47.2%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	67.5%	39.8%	40.4%	36.3%	47.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	77.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	47%	75.0°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	74.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	74.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	73.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	33%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	73.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261017-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗