KBOI / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

47%

40%

40%

36%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.9¢Risks 51.90u

HRESNO 48.1¢Risks 48.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.10u · HRES −48.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	41.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	33.5%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	29.5%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	16.3%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	26.9%	13.7%	0.9%	—	38.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	58.7%	78.0%	—	52.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	22.2%	65.6%	71.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	35.2%	52.4%	63.3%	—	46.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.5%	23.2%	67.0%	55.8%	—	55.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	0.4%	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	24.8%	54.4%	55.2%	—	55.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	27.1%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	32.2%	74.1%	51.8%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	32.6%	77.6%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	33.0%	75.3%	59.6%	—	62.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	34.4%	71.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	36.9%	68.8%	54.1%	—	61.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	35.5%	71.2%	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	36.1%	71.8%	39.2%	0.0%	65.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	34.6%	72.4%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	37.4%	71.0%	37.4%	—	60.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	37.0%	71.7%	33.6%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	43.8%	69.2%	38.9%	19.9%	68.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	44.9%	69.8%	33.7%	—	69.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	40.7%	63.2%	18.2%	18.2%	63.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.0%	45.8%	68.8%	25.3%	—	68.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	58.6%	74.4%	20.2%	29.3%	78.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	56.0%	76.4%	51.5%	—	75.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.8%	40.6%	77.4%	46.8%	31.7%	60.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	33.9%	69.0%	53.3%	—	69.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	77.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	47%	75.0°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	74.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	74.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	73.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	33%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	73.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261017-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗