KBOI / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

58%

46%

33%

20%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.8¢Risks 51.80u

ICONNO 48.2¢Risks 48.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.20u · ICON −48.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	28.0%	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	24.1%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	12.4%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.7%	21.4%	10.2%	0.5%	—	32.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	51.5%	72.2%	—	44.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	51.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	16.9%	58.3%	64.2%	—	42.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	28.1%	44.4%	55.6%	—	39.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	17.3%	59.1%	47.5%	—	46.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	0.2%	51.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	18.4%	45.6%	46.5%	—	46.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	20.2%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	24.4%	66.1%	42.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	24.6%	69.9%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	24.7%	67.0%	50.0%	—	52.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	25.7%	62.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	27.6%	59.2%	43.9%	—	51.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	26.2%	61.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	26.4%	61.8%	29.2%	0.0%	55.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	24.9%	62.2%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	27.0%	60.4%	27.0%	—	48.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	26.3%	60.7%	23.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	32.0%	57.4%	27.6%	12.4%	56.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	32.5%	57.7%	22.8%	—	57.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	28.4%	50.0%	10.7%	10.7%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	32.5%	55.6%	15.6%	—	55.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.6%	44.2%	61.4%	11.5%	18.2%	66.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	41.0%	63.3%	36.6%	—	61.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	26.3%	63.9%	31.7%	19.2%	45.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	20.3%	53.3%	37.0%	—	53.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	80.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	77.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	76.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	74.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	73.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261017-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗