KBOI / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

58%

46%

33%

20%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.8¢Risks 51.80u

ICONNO 48.2¢Risks 48.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.20u · ICON −48.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:21+00:00	70.9%	24.4%	32.1%	47.9%	37.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	70.9%	24.4%	35.7%	47.9%	37.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	70.9%	24.4%	35.7%	47.9%	37.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	70.9%	24.4%	35.7%	47.9%	37.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	70.9%	24.4%	35.7%	47.9%	37.3%
2026-10-13T08:04:14+00:00	69.9%	24.4%	35.7%	47.6%	30.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	69.9%	24.4%	35.7%	47.6%	30.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	69.9%	24.4%	35.7%	47.6%	30.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	69.9%	24.4%	35.7%	47.6%	30.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:25+00:00	69.9%	29.9%	31.5%	47.6%	30.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	69.9%	29.9%	31.5%	47.6%	30.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	69.9%	29.9%	31.5%	47.6%	30.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	69.9%	29.9%	31.5%	47.6%	30.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	70.7%	29.9%	31.4%	47.6%	30.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	70.7%	26.1%	31.4%	47.6%	30.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	70.7%	26.1%	31.4%	47.6%	30.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	70.7%	26.1%	31.4%	47.6%	30.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	70.7%	26.1%	31.4%	47.6%	30.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	70.7%	26.1%	31.4%	47.6%	30.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	70.7%	26.1%	31.4%	47.6%	30.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	72.9%	26.1%	31.4%	47.6%	38.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	72.9%	26.1%	31.4%	47.6%	38.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	72.9%	26.1%	31.4%	47.6%	38.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	72.9%	26.1%	31.4%	47.6%	38.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	72.9%	26.1%	31.4%	51.6%	38.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	72.9%	26.1%	35.3%	51.6%	38.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	72.9%	26.1%	35.3%	51.6%	38.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:55+00:00	72.9%	26.1%	35.3%	51.6%	38.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	74.3%	26.1%	35.3%	51.6%	38.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	74.3%	26.1%	35.3%	51.6%	38.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:38+00:00	73.9%	29.6%	44.9%	48.1%	23.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	73.9%	29.6%	44.9%	48.1%	23.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	73.9%	29.6%	28.1%	48.1%	23.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	73.9%	29.6%	28.1%	48.1%	23.1%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	73.9%	29.6%	28.1%	48.1%	23.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	73.9%	29.6%	28.1%	48.1%	23.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	76.2%	29.6%	28.1%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	76.2%	29.6%	28.1%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	76.2%	29.6%	28.1%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	76.2%	29.6%	28.1%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	76.2%	29.6%	34.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00	76.2%	29.6%	34.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	76.2%	29.6%	34.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	77.7%	29.6%	34.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	77.7%	29.6%	34.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	77.7%	29.6%	34.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	77.7%	29.6%	34.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-16T04:24:57+00:00	77.7%	29.6%	34.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	77.7%	29.6%	47.4%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	77.7%	29.6%	47.4%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	77.7%	29.6%	47.4%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	78.3%	29.6%	47.4%	45.1%	21.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	78.3%	29.6%	47.4%	45.1%	21.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	78.3%	29.6%	47.4%	45.1%	21.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	78.3%	29.6%	47.4%	45.1%	21.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	78.3%	29.6%	47.4%	45.1%	21.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	78.3%	31.7%	56.8%	45.1%	21.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	78.3%	31.7%	56.8%	45.1%	21.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	78.3%	31.7%	56.8%	45.1%	21.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:54+00:00	79.0%	31.7%	56.8%	50.0%	21.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	79.1%	31.8%	56.8%	50.0%	21.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:23+00:00	83.8%	33.4%	51.4%	45.7%	19.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	83.8%	33.4%	58.2%	45.7%	19.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	83.8%	33.4%	58.2%	45.7%	19.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	83.8%	33.4%	58.2%	45.7%	19.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	80.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	77.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	76.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	74.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	73.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261017-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗