KBOI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

80%

78%

71%

71%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 80.5¢Risks 40.27u

ICONNO 19.4¢Risks 9.72u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +9.72u · ICON −9.72u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	78.9%	90.2%	66.6%	88.1%	80.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	78.9%	90.2%	66.6%	88.1%	80.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	78.9%	90.2%	66.6%	88.1%	80.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	78.9%	90.2%	65.7%	88.1%	80.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	78.9%	90.2%	65.7%	88.1%	80.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	78.9%	90.2%	65.7%	88.1%	80.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	81.4%	90.2%	65.7%	88.1%	84.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	81.4%	90.2%	65.7%	88.1%	84.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	81.4%	90.2%	65.7%	88.1%	84.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	81.4%	90.2%	65.7%	88.1%	84.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	81.4%	90.2%	65.7%	88.1%	84.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	81.4%	90.2%	64.7%	88.1%	84.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	81.4%	90.2%	64.7%	88.1%	84.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	81.4%	90.2%	64.7%	88.1%	84.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	85.2%	90.2%	64.7%	88.1%	84.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	85.2%	90.2%	64.7%	88.1%	84.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	85.2%	90.2%	64.7%	88.1%	84.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:38+00:00	78.7%	90.1%	77.1%	89.5%	87.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	78.7%	90.1%	77.1%	89.5%	87.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	78.7%	90.1%	81.3%	89.5%	87.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	78.7%	90.1%	81.3%	89.5%	87.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	78.7%	90.1%	81.3%	89.5%	87.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	78.7%	90.1%	81.3%	89.5%	87.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	78.7%	90.1%	81.3%	77.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	78.7%	90.1%	81.3%	77.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	78.7%	90.1%	81.3%	77.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	78.7%	90.1%	81.3%	77.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	78.7%	90.1%	71.4%	77.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00	78.7%	90.1%	71.4%	77.7%	71.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	78.7%	90.1%	71.4%	77.7%	71.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	80.0%	90.1%	71.4%	77.7%	71.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	80.0%	90.1%	71.4%	77.7%	71.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	80.0%	90.1%	71.4%	77.7%	71.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	80.0%	90.1%	71.4%	77.7%	71.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	75.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	74.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	73.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	72.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	71%	72.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗