KBOI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

80%

78%

71%

71%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 80.5¢Risks 40.27u

ICONNO 19.4¢Risks 9.72u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +9.72u · ICON −9.72u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	2.7%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	60.6%	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	64.6%	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	89.8%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	87.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	74.3%	70.2%	5.2%	—	75.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	70.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	51.5%	39.2%	71.5%	—	82.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	70.4%	57.6%	60.6%	—	86.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	68.4%	64.8%	44.4%	—	83.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	76.2%	33.0%	59.1%	—	72.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	3.6%	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	70.9%	31.4%	60.4%	—	82.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	58.0%	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	76.3%	36.4%	35.6%	—	83.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	76.9%	32.6%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	82.9%	52.9%	82.3%	—	86.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	63.7%	55.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	65.1%	37.8%	39.8%	—	76.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	76.3%	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	54.4%	51.1%	27.3%	—	80.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	64.3%	61.1%	0.0%	—	77.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	62.6%	45.4%	31.0%	—	70.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	80.1%	45.2%	31.4%	—	66.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	64.6%	64.6%	36.5%	16.6%	79.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	76.2%	68.7%	38.5%	—	85.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	80.9%	68.1%	44.6%	18.2%	82.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	79.9%	76.8%	35.0%	—	83.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	81.8%	77.8%	28.0%	20.2%	85.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.8%	68.9%	90.8%	38.1%	—	89.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	65.4%	82.9%	31.7%	36.1%	75.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	50.0%	71.9%	48.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	75.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	74.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	73.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	72.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	71%	72.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗