KBOI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

61%

38%

37%

22%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 43.0¢Risks 43.05u

ICONNO 57.0¢Risks 56.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +56.95u · ICON −56.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	35.9%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	39.1%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	72.4%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	47.9%	43.0%	1.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	24.3%	15.6%	43.4%	—	57.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	40.9%	28.3%	30.9%	—	62.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	37.5%	33.7%	17.4%	—	56.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	45.0%	10.1%	27.2%	—	40.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	0.4%	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	37.1%	8.6%	26.9%	—	51.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	24.2%	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	41.8%	10.2%	9.8%	—	51.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	41.5%	8.1%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	49.0%	18.3%	48.0%	—	55.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	25.7%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	25.9%	9.0%	9.8%	—	37.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	36.5%	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	16.2%	14.3%	4.5%	—	40.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	22.3%	19.8%	0.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	19.9%	10.0%	4.8%	—	26.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	35.9%	9.2%	4.5%	—	21.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	19.1%	19.1%	5.5%	1.3%	33.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	28.0%	20.9%	5.6%	—	41.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	31.9%	19.1%	7.0%	1.2%	34.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	28.8%	25.3%	3.7%	—	33.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	29.3%	24.5%	2.1%	1.1%	34.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	15.3%	42.5%	3.4%	—	39.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	11.7%	26.3%	2.0%	2.6%	18.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	4.9%	14.1%	4.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	64%	76.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	75.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	73.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	73.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	24%	73.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	22%	71.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗