KBOI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

93%

88%

83%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 90.6¢Risks 45.32u

ICONNO 9.4¢Risks 4.68u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +4.68u · ICON −4.68u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	8.8%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	71.6%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	5.8%	68.2%	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	76.5%	94.9%	5.2%	—	92.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	70.9%	50.7%	82.5%	—	83.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	89.3%	95.4%	43.2%	—	63.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	3.1%	97.9%	88.5%	—	82.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	94.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	74.2%	95.7%	2.1%	—	96.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	92.8%	34.2%	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	85.9%	96.4%	99.0%	—	97.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	79.1%	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	80.4%	98.2%	92.4%	—	96.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	62.1%	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	93.8%	94.9%	98.7%	98.8%	—	99.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	93.4%	99.1%	—	—	98.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	96.5%	97.0%	99.5%	—	98.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	97.7%	98.0%	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	98.5%	99.3%	98.8%	0.0%	99.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	98.8%	99.7%	0.0%	—	99.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	98.6%	99.8%	95.2%	92.0%	99.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	98.7%	99.8%	97.5%	—	99.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.5%	99.9%	96.7%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.2%	99.9%	99.7%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.4%	99.9%	98.1%	90.5%	99.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.5%	100.0%	99.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.8%	100.0%	97.1%	97.7%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.8%	100.0%	99.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	100.0%	99.6%	99.8%	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	99.7%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	78.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	79.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	74.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	88%	74.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	83%	74.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	70.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗