KBOI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

93%

88%

83%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 90.6¢Risks 45.32u

ICONNO 9.4¢Risks 4.68u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +4.68u · ICON −4.68u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	5.4%	68.9%	27.9%	91.0%	31.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	5.4%	92.3%	27.9%	91.0%	31.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	5.4%	92.3%	27.9%	91.0%	31.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	19.5%	92.3%	27.9%	91.0%	31.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	19.7%	92.3%	28.0%	91.0%	31.4%
2026-10-12T15:27:44+00:00	19.7%	92.3%	28.0%	91.0%	31.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	19.7%	87.6%	28.0%	91.0%	31.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	19.7%	87.6%	50.0%	91.0%	31.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	19.7%	87.6%	50.0%	91.0%	31.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	19.7%	87.6%	50.0%	91.0%	31.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	19.7%	87.6%	50.0%	91.0%	31.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	24.4%	87.6%	50.0%	95.6%	80.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	24.4%	87.6%	50.0%	95.6%	80.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	24.4%	87.6%	50.0%	95.6%	80.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	24.4%	87.6%	50.0%	95.6%	80.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	24.4%	87.6%	54.0%	95.6%	80.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	24.4%	87.6%	54.0%	95.6%	80.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	24.4%	87.6%	54.0%	95.6%	80.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	24.4%	87.6%	54.0%	95.6%	80.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	23.8%	87.6%	54.0%	95.6%	80.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	23.8%	87.6%	54.0%	95.6%	80.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	23.8%	87.6%	54.0%	95.6%	80.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:43+00:00	89.0%	87.6%	59.6%	73.4%	13.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	89.0%	87.6%	59.6%	73.4%	13.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	89.0%	87.6%	59.6%	73.4%	13.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	89.0%	87.6%	76.7%	73.4%	13.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	89.0%	87.6%	76.7%	73.4%	13.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	89.0%	87.6%	76.7%	73.4%	13.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	99.2%	87.6%	76.7%	96.8%	83.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	99.2%	87.6%	76.7%	96.8%	83.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	99.2%	87.6%	76.7%	96.8%	83.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	99.2%	87.6%	76.7%	96.8%	83.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	99.2%	87.6%	76.7%	96.8%	83.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	99.2%	87.6%	92.8%	96.8%	83.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	99.2%	87.6%	92.8%	96.8%	83.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	99.2%	87.6%	92.8%	96.8%	83.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	98.2%	87.6%	92.8%	96.8%	83.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	98.2%	87.6%	92.8%	96.8%	83.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	98.2%	87.6%	92.8%	96.8%	83.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	78.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	79.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	74.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	88%	74.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	83%	74.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	70.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗