KBOI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

64%

28%

16%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 46.0¢Risks 45.95u

AIFSNO 54.0¢Risks 54.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +54.05u · AIFS −54.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	6.6%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	65.8%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.0%	62.0%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	70.8%	92.8%	3.6%	—	90.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	64.3%	43.4%	77.4%	—	79.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	85.4%	93.2%	35.8%	—	56.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.0%	96.7%	84.1%	—	76.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	92.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	67.0%	93.4%	1.2%	—	93.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	26.7%	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	80.4%	94.3%	98.3%	—	95.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	72.1%	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.1%	73.4%	97.0%	88.5%	—	94.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	52.8%	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	91.8%	97.6%	97.9%	—	98.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	88.6%	89.5%	98.4%	—	—	97.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	93.9%	94.8%	98.9%	—	97.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	89.9%	95.8%	96.2%	—	—	98.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	96.2%	97.1%	98.5%	97.6%	0.0%	99.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	97.6%	99.3%	0.0%	—	99.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	97.1%	99.5%	91.5%	86.6%	99.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.7%	97.3%	99.4%	95.2%	—	99.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	98.9%	99.8%	93.7%	—	99.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.3%	98.2%	99.7%	99.2%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	98.4%	99.8%	96.0%	83.5%	99.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	98.7%	99.9%	97.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.3%	99.9%	93.7%	94.9%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	88%	77.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	72.5°F	8.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	70.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	63.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	64.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	59.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 70°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗