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KBOI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
88%
EPS
64%
ICON
28%
WN2
16%
AIFS
4%
Consensus
33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 46.0¢Risks 45.95u
VS
AIFSNO 54.0¢Risks 54.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +54.05u · AIFS −54.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-12T07:48:58+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.4% · 2026-10-12T07:48:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.4% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.4% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.4% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.4% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T07:48:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-12T07:48:58+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00ICON: 27.8% · 2026-10-12T07:48:58+00:00ICON: 27.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00ICON: 27.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00ICON: 27.8% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00ICON: 27.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:0010-12 07:4810-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:48:58+00:003.7%64.4%16.4%88.2%27.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:003.7%64.4%16.4%88.2%27.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:003.7%64.4%16.4%88.2%27.8%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:003.7%64.4%16.4%88.2%27.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:003.7%64.4%16.4%88.2%27.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES88%77.0°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble64%72.5°F8.1°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
National Blend53%70.0°F7.7°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
ICON28%63.7°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 216%64.3°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
AIFS Single4%59.5°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 70°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗