KBOI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

85%

83%

69%

51%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 71.9¢Risks 71.85u

ICONNO 28.1¢Risks 28.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +28.15u · ICON −28.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	1.2%	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	34.2%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	29.4%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	36.9%	72.0%	0.4%	—	65.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	29.1%	14.0%	43.4%	—	45.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	53.8%	70.4%	9.3%	—	21.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	80.0%	50.0%	—	39.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	27.2%	67.8%	0.1%	—	69.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	4.5%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	40.5%	68.6%	84.4%	—	72.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	29.4%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	29.7%	76.3%	51.8%	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	13.2%	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	56.8%	77.5%	79.0%	—	81.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.0%	50.0%	81.0%	—	—	77.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	60.2%	63.1%	84.3%	—	76.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	65.5%	67.4%	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	69.9%	78.7%	72.7%	0.0%	85.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	74.2%	71.4%	85.2%	0.0%	—	87.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	66.9%	86.0%	46.5%	36.3%	84.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	76.6%	66.4%	84.0%	56.0%	—	86.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	76.4%	90.5%	48.8%	—	90.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	68.7%	87.2%	79.1%	—	91.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	68.1%	89.3%	52.7%	24.0%	89.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	78.9%	68.8%	88.9%	59.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	74.4%	91.1%	38.6%	42.8%	92.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	80.8%	74.0%	92.5%	61.9%	—	92.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	76.2%	93.4%	59.4%	69.7%	89.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	66.1%	90.1%	58.2%	—	92.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	94%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	80.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	87%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	77.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	78.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	76.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	51%	74.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗