KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

97%

95%

80%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 89.5¢Risks 44.73u

ICONNO 10.5¢Risks 5.27u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +5.27u · ICON −5.27u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	4.3%	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	11.0%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.0%	2.3%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	57.0%	14.9%	1.7%	—	12.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	5.9%	79.0%	21.5%	—	33.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	2.9%	27.0%	0.1%	—	69.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	1.6%	32.3%	83.7%	—	64.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	1.3%	77.5%	8.7%	—	58.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	0.0%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	33.0%	76.6%	52.6%	—	59.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	21.5%	82.8%	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	77.7%	63.6%	50.9%	—	51.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	69.1%	73.2%	—	—	74.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	91.4%	83.5%	70.4%	82.9%	—	88.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	92.4%	71.8%	56.0%	—	—	93.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	88.7%	75.7%	80.3%	83.0%	0.0%	95.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.5%	84.4%	90.4%	—	—	96.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	92.3%	94.4%	88.6%	—	97.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	89.3%	93.7%	0.0%	—	98.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	93.9%	93.9%	87.9%	0.0%	98.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	86.8%	96.0%	96.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	93.3%	97.0%	93.3%	80.1%	99.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.3%	96.8%	94.4%	95.4%	—	99.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	95.0%	97.8%	94.7%	86.6%	99.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	89.6%	98.5%	96.5%	—	99.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	94.9%	96.3%	95.3%	92.7%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	96.8%	94.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	76.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	76.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	97%	74.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	74.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	80%	70.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗