KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

97%

95%

80%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 89.5¢Risks 44.73u

ICONNO 10.5¢Risks 5.27u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +5.27u · ICON −5.27u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:24+00:00	83.2%	96.4%	86.5%	66.3%	84.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	83.2%	96.4%	86.5%	66.3%	84.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	83.2%	96.4%	86.5%	66.3%	84.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	83.2%	96.4%	86.5%	66.3%	84.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	98.5%	96.4%	86.5%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	98.5%	96.4%	86.5%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	98.5%	96.4%	86.5%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	98.5%	96.4%	86.5%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	98.5%	96.4%	86.5%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	98.5%	98.4%	96.9%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	98.5%	98.4%	96.9%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	98.5%	98.4%	96.9%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	98.6%	98.4%	96.9%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	98.6%	98.2%	96.9%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	98.6%	98.5%	96.9%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	98.6%	98.5%	96.9%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	98.6%	98.5%	98.8%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	98.6%	98.5%	98.8%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	98.6%	98.5%	98.8%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	98.6%	98.5%	98.8%	92.1%	88.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	97.5%	98.5%	98.8%	95.1%	80.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	97.5%	98.5%	98.8%	95.1%	80.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	97.5%	98.5%	98.8%	95.1%	80.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	97.5%	98.5%	98.8%	95.1%	80.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	97.5%	98.5%	97.3%	95.1%	80.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	97.5%	98.5%	97.3%	95.1%	80.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	97.5%	98.5%	97.3%	95.1%	80.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	97.5%	98.5%	97.3%	95.1%	80.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	98.5%	98.5%	97.3%	95.1%	80.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	98.5%	98.5%	97.3%	95.1%	80.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	98.5%	98.5%	97.3%	95.1%	80.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	76.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	76.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	97%	74.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	74.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	80%	70.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗