KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

85%

80%

80%

36%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.6¢Risks 63.60u

ICONNO 36.4¢Risks 36.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.40u · ICON −36.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.1%	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	24.1%	2.7%	0.1%	—	2.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.7%	45.6%	4.4%	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	0.2%	5.8%	0.0%	—	32.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.1%	7.2%	49.2%	—	26.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	0.1%	38.5%	0.8%	—	20.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.0%	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	6.2%	35.4%	15.1%	—	19.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	2.8%	42.9%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	34.7%	20.9%	12.9%	—	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	24.6%	28.4%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	40.4%	24.7%	39.4%	—	49.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	24.9%	13.5%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	27.6%	33.0%	36.9%	0.0%	66.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	37.5%	48.9%	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	52.2%	58.7%	43.5%	—	71.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	43.3%	54.5%	0.0%	—	77.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	53.5%	53.5%	38.5%	0.0%	74.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	34.7%	59.5%	61.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	47.5%	62.3%	47.5%	23.6%	91.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	59.0%	48.7%	52.6%	—	92.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	48.7%	63.2%	47.3%	28.4%	90.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	31.2%	66.2%	52.8%	—	92.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	42.8%	48.5%	44.2%	35.8%	94.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	48.5%	36.6%	—	94.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	77.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	85%	77.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	75.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	74.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	36%	71.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗