KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

85%

80%

80%

36%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.6¢Risks 63.60u

ICONNO 36.4¢Risks 36.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.40u · ICON −36.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:03+00:00	89.5%	85.5%	79.0%	86.4%	48.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	89.5%	86.7%	79.0%	86.4%	48.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	89.5%	86.7%	79.0%	86.4%	48.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	89.5%	86.7%	80.8%	86.4%	48.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	89.5%	86.7%	80.8%	86.4%	48.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	89.5%	86.7%	80.8%	86.4%	48.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	87.6%	86.7%	80.8%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	87.6%	86.7%	80.8%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	87.6%	86.7%	80.8%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	87.6%	86.7%	80.8%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	87.6%	86.7%	80.8%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	87.6%	86.7%	81.7%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	87.6%	86.7%	81.7%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	87.6%	86.7%	81.7%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	92.0%	86.7%	81.7%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	92.0%	86.7%	81.7%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	92.0%	86.7%	81.7%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	92.0%	86.7%	81.7%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:25+00:00	92.0%	86.7%	81.7%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	92.0%	86.7%	87.7%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	92.0%	86.7%	87.7%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	92.0%	86.7%	87.7%	81.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:00	93.0%	86.7%	87.7%	90.2%	33.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	93.0%	86.7%	87.7%	90.2%	33.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	93.0%	86.7%	87.7%	90.2%	33.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	93.0%	86.7%	87.7%	90.2%	33.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:00	93.0%	86.7%	87.7%	90.2%	33.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:14+00:00	93.0%	84.0%	85.7%	90.2%	33.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	93.0%	84.0%	85.7%	90.2%	33.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	93.0%	84.0%	85.7%	90.2%	33.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	93.6%	84.0%	85.7%	90.2%	33.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	93.7%	84.0%	85.7%	90.2%	34.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:51+00:00	93.7%	85.1%	85.7%	90.2%	34.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	93.7%	85.1%	85.7%	90.2%	34.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	93.7%	85.1%	85.7%	90.2%	34.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	93.7%	85.1%	83.2%	90.2%	34.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	93.7%	85.1%	83.2%	90.2%	34.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	93.7%	85.1%	83.2%	90.2%	34.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	91.9%	85.1%	83.2%	79.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	91.9%	85.1%	83.2%	79.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	91.9%	85.1%	83.2%	79.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	91.9%	85.1%	83.2%	79.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	91.9%	85.1%	83.2%	79.8%	35.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	91.9%	85.1%	79.5%	79.8%	35.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	91.9%	85.1%	79.5%	79.8%	35.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	91.9%	85.1%	79.5%	79.8%	35.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	91.5%	85.1%	79.5%	79.8%	35.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	91.5%	85.1%	79.5%	79.8%	35.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	91.5%	85.1%	79.5%	79.8%	35.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	77.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	85%	77.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	75.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	74.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	36%	71.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗