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KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
86%
EPS
72%
HRES
62%
WN2
57%
ICON
9%
Consensus
58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 47.4¢Risks 47.45u
VS
ICONNO 52.6¢Risks 52.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.55u · ICON −52.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 80.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:30+00:00AIFS Single: 80.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00AIFS Single: 80.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00AIFS Single: 80.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 80.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 85.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.5% · 2026-10-20T04:05:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:30+00:00IFS HRES: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS HRES: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00IFS HRES: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 17.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:30+00:00ICON: 17.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00ICON: 17.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00ICON: 17.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 17.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 07:0610-20 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:30+00:0080.7%71.8%55.5%61.7%17.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:0080.7%71.8%55.5%61.7%17.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:0080.7%71.8%56.8%61.7%17.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0080.7%71.8%56.8%61.7%17.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0080.7%71.8%56.8%61.7%17.6%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:0085.9%71.8%56.8%61.7%9.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0085.9%71.8%56.8%61.7%9.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0085.9%71.8%56.8%61.7%9.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0085.9%71.8%56.8%61.7%9.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single86%77.8°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble72%77.0°F4.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES62%75.6°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
NWS forecast59%75.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 257%75.0°F2.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
National Blend56%75.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON9%69.8°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗