KBOI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

72%

62%

57%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.4¢Risks 47.45u

ICONNO 52.6¢Risks 52.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.55u · ICON −52.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	14.5%	1.1%	0.0%	—	0.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	31.7%	1.9%	—	4.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	0.1%	2.5%	0.0%	—	20.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	3.1%	33.7%	—	15.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	0.0%	23.8%	0.2%	—	10.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.0%	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	2.4%	20.8%	7.0%	—	9.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	0.9%	26.4%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	19.6%	10.2%	5.5%	—	5.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	12.2%	14.8%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	23.2%	12.1%	22.5%	—	30.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	11.9%	5.4%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	13.4%	17.0%	19.7%	0.0%	45.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	19.8%	28.8%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	31.1%	37.1%	23.8%	—	51.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	23.1%	32.6%	0.0%	—	57.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	31.0%	31.0%	19.1%	0.0%	52.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.4%	16.0%	35.9%	38.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	24.6%	37.7%	24.6%	8.9%	76.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	33.7%	24.8%	28.0%	—	78.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	24.0%	36.8%	23.0%	10.7%	73.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	11.8%	39.0%	26.5%	—	76.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	18.2%	22.2%	19.1%	13.8%	80.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	21.3%	13.6%	—	79.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	86%	77.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	77.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	75.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	75.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	69.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗