KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

87%

73%

42%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 69.5¢Risks 69.55u

ICONNO 30.4¢Risks 30.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +30.45u · ICON −30.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	0.7%	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	3.4%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	1.1%	95.3%	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	75.4%	67.0%	0.8%	—	93.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	17.5%	12.0%	96.8%	—	95.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	25.1%	64.2%	82.1%	—	91.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	98.0%	98.3%	91.0%	—	97.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	98.4%	97.9%	96.1%	—	97.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	82.2%	96.2%	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.1%	93.2%	99.8%	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	98.1%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	92.4%	96.6%	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	4.2%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	70.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	69.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	64.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	67.8°F	13.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	69%	64.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	42%	58.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 60°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗