KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

87%

73%

42%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 69.5¢Risks 69.55u

ICONNO 30.4¢Risks 30.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +30.45u · ICON −30.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:21:01+00:00	66.5%	65.0%	52.4%	18.0%	18.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	66.5%	65.0%	52.4%	18.0%	18.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	66.5%	65.0%	52.4%	18.0%	18.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	80.3%	65.0%	52.4%	18.0%	18.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	80.3%	65.0%	52.4%	18.0%	18.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	80.3%	64.5%	52.4%	18.0%	18.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	80.3%	64.5%	52.4%	18.0%	18.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	80.3%	64.5%	52.4%	18.0%	18.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	80.3%	64.5%	64.8%	18.0%	18.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	80.3%	64.5%	64.8%	18.0%	18.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	80.3%	64.5%	64.8%	18.0%	18.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	99.3%	64.5%	64.8%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	99.3%	64.5%	64.8%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	99.3%	64.5%	64.8%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	99.3%	64.5%	64.8%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	99.3%	64.5%	64.8%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	99.3%	64.5%	86.4%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	99.3%	64.5%	86.4%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	99.3%	64.5%	86.4%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	94.3%	64.5%	86.4%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	94.3%	64.5%	86.4%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	94.3%	64.5%	86.4%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:34+00:00	94.3%	64.5%	86.4%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	94.3%	64.5%	86.4%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	94.3%	64.5%	82.1%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:29+00:00	94.3%	64.5%	82.1%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	94.3%	64.5%	82.1%	99.7%	80.4%
2026-10-15T07:50:23+00:00	90.3%	64.5%	82.1%	93.8%	41.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	90.3%	64.5%	82.1%	93.8%	41.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	90.3%	64.5%	82.1%	93.8%	41.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	90.3%	64.5%	82.1%	93.8%	41.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	90.3%	64.5%	86.7%	93.8%	41.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	90.3%	64.5%	86.7%	93.8%	41.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	90.3%	73.3%	86.7%	93.8%	41.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:36+00:00	90.3%	73.3%	86.7%	93.8%	41.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	97.5%	73.3%	86.7%	93.7%	41.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	97.5%	73.3%	86.7%	93.7%	41.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	70.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	69.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	64.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	67.8°F	13.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	69%	64.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	42%	58.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 60°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗