KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

96%

78%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 88.9¢Risks 88.95u

EPSNO 11.1¢Risks 11.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +11.05u · EPS −11.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	—	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	0.4%	91.0%	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	63.1%	53.5%	0.3%	—	87.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	9.6%	6.2%	93.1%	—	90.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	14.6%	49.2%	70.4%	—	83.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	95.2%	95.7%	82.6%	—	93.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	95.7%	94.7%	91.0%	—	94.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	68.9%	91.2%	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	97.2%	85.4%	99.4%	—	99.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.6%	94.8%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.9%	83.4%	91.4%	—	100.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	98.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	96.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.6%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.6%	100.0%	1.1%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.2%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	75.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	98%	73.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	96%	72.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	68.6°F	9.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	48%	61.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗