KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

96%

78%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 88.9¢Risks 88.95u

EPSNO 11.1¢Risks 11.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +11.05u · EPS −11.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:57+00:00	95.4%	68.6%	81.0%	95.2%	39.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	95.4%	68.6%	84.8%	95.2%	39.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	95.4%	68.6%	84.8%	95.2%	39.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	95.4%	68.6%	84.8%	95.2%	39.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	98.2%	68.6%	84.8%	95.2%	96.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	98.2%	68.6%	84.8%	95.2%	96.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	98.2%	68.6%	84.8%	95.2%	96.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	98.2%	68.6%	84.8%	95.2%	96.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	98.2%	68.6%	84.8%	95.2%	96.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	98.2%	76.9%	86.3%	95.2%	96.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	98.2%	76.9%	86.3%	95.2%	96.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	98.2%	76.9%	86.3%	95.2%	96.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:54+00:00	99.5%	76.9%	86.3%	83.4%	96.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	99.5%	76.9%	86.3%	83.4%	96.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	99.5%	78.0%	86.3%	83.4%	96.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:58+00:00	99.5%	78.1%	86.3%	83.4%	96.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	99.5%	78.1%	86.3%	83.4%	96.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	99.5%	78.1%	96.2%	83.4%	96.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	99.5%	78.1%	96.2%	83.4%	96.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	99.5%	78.1%	96.2%	83.4%	96.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	99.8%	78.1%	96.2%	83.4%	96.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	99.8%	78.1%	96.2%	83.4%	96.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	99.8%	78.1%	96.2%	83.4%	96.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	99.8%	78.1%	96.2%	83.4%	96.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	99.8%	78.1%	96.2%	98.2%	96.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	99.8%	78.1%	99.4%	98.2%	96.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	99.8%	78.1%	99.4%	98.2%	96.5%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	99.8%	78.1%	99.4%	98.2%	96.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	99.8%	78.1%	99.4%	98.2%	96.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	99.8%	78.1%	99.4%	98.2%	96.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	99.8%	78.1%	99.4%	98.2%	96.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	99.8%	78.1%	99.4%	98.2%	96.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	75.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	98%	73.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	96%	72.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	68.6°F	9.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	48%	61.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗