KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

90%

88%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 93.8¢Risks 46.92u

EPSNO 6.2¢Risks 3.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +3.08u · EPS −3.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	0.0%	74.6%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	35.6%	26.9%	0.0%	—	67.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	2.1%	1.1%	77.4%	—	70.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	3.5%	21.6%	40.9%	—	58.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	80.5%	82.1%	55.6%	—	77.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	81.0%	78.1%	69.2%	—	76.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	92.2%	35.8%	68.9%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	84.9%	57.0%	94.6%	—	98.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	96.2%	76.5%	—	—	98.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	98.0%	51.8%	67.0%	—	99.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	99.5%	98.1%	—	—	99.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.4%	99.6%	88.4%	—	99.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.2%	99.4%	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	98.8%	99.5%	78.1%	—	99.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	98.9%	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	98.5%	99.8%	94.1%	—	99.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	93.7%	99.9%	0.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	89.0%	100.0%	99.7%	0.0%	99.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	97.7%	100.0%	99.7%	—	99.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.6%	100.0%	97.9%	98.9%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	100.0%	98.5%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	77.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	75.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	98%	75.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	90%	71.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	88%	73.6°F	6.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	64%	68.0°F	6.8°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗