KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

96%

92%

82%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 90.8¢Risks 45.42u

EPSNO 9.2¢Risks 4.58u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +4.58u · EPS −4.58u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	62.6%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	23.5%	16.6%	0.0%	—	54.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	0.8%	0.4%	65.0%	—	57.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	1.4%	12.2%	27.0%	—	43.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	67.7%	69.8%	39.7%	—	63.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	67.8%	63.9%	53.3%	—	62.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	21.4%	52.6%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	95.5%	72.4%	39.6%	87.8%	—	96.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	90.8%	60.7%	—	—	96.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	93.0%	94.5%	33.9%	49.1%	—	97.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	95.8%	98.3%	94.4%	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	98.0%	98.4%	76.0%	—	98.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	97.2%	97.9%	—	—	98.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	96.0%	98.2%	60.2%	—	98.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	96.0%	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	94.7%	99.1%	84.5%	—	99.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	83.2%	99.3%	0.0%	—	99.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	74.0%	99.8%	98.5%	0.0%	99.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	91.8%	99.9%	98.4%	—	99.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	97.9%	99.9%	92.0%	95.1%	99.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	100.0%	93.6%	—	99.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	78.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	96%	76.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	74.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	74.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	73.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	68.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗