KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

96%

92%

82%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 90.8¢Risks 45.42u

EPSNO 9.2¢Risks 4.58u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +4.58u · EPS −4.58u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	98.8%	82.5%	98.2%	94.7%	81.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	98.8%	82.5%	98.2%	94.7%	81.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	98.8%	82.5%	97.2%	94.7%	81.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	98.8%	82.5%	97.2%	94.7%	81.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	98.8%	82.5%	97.2%	94.7%	81.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	98.8%	82.5%	97.2%	94.7%	81.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	98.6%	82.5%	97.2%	91.6%	96.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	98.6%	82.5%	97.2%	91.6%	96.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	98.6%	82.5%	97.2%	91.6%	96.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	98.6%	82.5%	97.2%	91.6%	96.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	98.6%	82.5%	95.9%	91.6%	96.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	98.6%	82.5%	95.9%	91.6%	96.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	98.6%	82.5%	95.9%	91.6%	96.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	98.6%	82.5%	95.9%	91.6%	96.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	99.2%	82.5%	95.9%	91.6%	96.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	99.2%	82.5%	95.9%	91.6%	96.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	99.2%	82.5%	95.9%	91.6%	96.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	78.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	96%	76.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	74.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	74.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	73.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	68.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗