KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

80%

78%

71%

42%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.0¢Risks 66.00u

ICONNO 34.0¢Risks 34.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.00u · ICON −34.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	24.4%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	3.8%	2.1%	0.0%	—	17.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.0%	0.0%	23.7%	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	0.0%	1.0%	3.9%	—	9.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	23.0%	24.8%	7.2%	—	19.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	21.3%	18.4%	12.0%	—	17.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	1.9%	11.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	23.4%	5.7%	43.9%	—	68.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	49.1%	14.0%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	58.2%	3.6%	7.9%	—	71.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	75.4%	56.6%	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	72.1%	75.3%	22.5%	—	74.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	70.1%	65.6%	70.1%	—	—	77.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	58.2%	70.6%	9.8%	—	76.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	56.3%	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	48.9%	77.0%	26.4%	—	83.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	23.1%	77.7%	0.0%	—	81.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	13.4%	85.3%	65.9%	0.0%	77.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	33.6%	87.4%	63.0%	—	76.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	56.2%	90.5%	32.0%	41.3%	80.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	90.8%	33.7%	—	80.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	94%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	78.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	87%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	76.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	76.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	75.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	42%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 19:43 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗