KBOI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

61%

48%

44%

18%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

ICONNO 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +42.10u · ICON −42.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	86.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	98.0%	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	92.5%	—	—	90.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	90.1%	1.0%	50.0%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	81.6%	27.5%	7.9%	—	80.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	86.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	50.7%	93.1%	92.9%	—	90.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	97.0%	47.7%	54.6%	—	87.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	93.6%	82.6%	98.9%	—	99.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	97.6%	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	90.6%	92.9%	55.8%	—	98.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	42.4%	91.8%	—	—	98.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	95.3%	92.3%	98.4%	—	94.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	89.6%	99.2%	92.2%	—	—	97.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	78.4%	100.0%	61.8%	—	96.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	95.6%	98.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	80.3%	99.9%	92.8%	—	98.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	75.1%	100.0%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	97.4%	100.0%	99.7%	—	99.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	97.4%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	90.6%	97.7%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	100.0%	2.2%	—	99.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	71.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	64.4°F	13.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	61.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	60.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	59.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	51.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261022-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 61°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗