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KBOI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
98%
EPS
61%
WN2
48%
HRES
44%
ICON
18%
Consensus
65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 57.9¢Risks 57.90u
VS
ICONNO 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +42.10u · ICON −42.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.8% · 2026-10-15T07:50:23+00:00AIFS Single: 97.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00AIFS Single: 97.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00AIFS Single: 97.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.3% · 2026-10-15T07:50:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.5% · 2026-10-15T07:50:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.5% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.5% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.5% · 2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-15T07:50:23+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00IFS HRES: 43.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00ICON: 18.0% · 2026-10-15T07:50:23+00:00ICON: 18.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00ICON: 18.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00ICON: 18.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:0010-15 07:5010-15 09:2110-15 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:50:23+00:0097.8%61.3%48.5%43.7%18.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:0097.8%61.3%48.5%43.7%18.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:0097.8%61.3%48.5%43.7%18.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:0097.8%61.3%48.5%43.7%18.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single98%71.8°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble61%64.4°F13.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend53%61.0°F7.7°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 248%60.3°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS HRES44%59.5°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON18%51.4°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261022-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 61°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗