KBOI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

77%

76%

68%

45%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.9¢Risks 69.90u

HRESNO 30.1¢Risks 30.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.10u · HRES −30.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	—	—	—	72.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	92.4%	—	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	67.0%	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	87.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	24.6%	—	—	77.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	48.0%	58.7%	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	78.1%	58.4%	54.2%	—	75.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	44.2%	37.8%	79.0%	—	93.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	59.8%	99.6%	52.3%	—	81.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	97.5%	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	71.9%	97.0%	58.7%	—	64.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	97.3%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	94.9%	86.7%	53.3%	—	48.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.4%	89.3%	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	86.4%	52.6%	51.7%	—	57.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	93.7%	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	55.5%	75.6%	71.8%	—	59.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	90.8%	84.1%	—	—	79.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	67.0%	83.5%	69.6%	52.9%	78.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	86.5%	—	—	87.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	68.3°F	8.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	57.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	57.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	68%	56.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	54.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	53.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261023-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 55°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗