KBOI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

77%

76%

68%

45%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.9¢Risks 69.90u

HRESNO 30.1¢Risks 30.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.10u · HRES −30.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:54+00:00	78.5%	86.4%	83.8%	73.8%	66.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	78.3%	86.3%	83.7%	73.8%	66.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	78.3%	87.3%	83.7%	73.8%	66.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:58+00:00	78.3%	87.4%	83.7%	73.8%	66.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	78.3%	87.4%	83.7%	73.8%	66.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	78.3%	87.4%	76.0%	73.8%	66.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	78.3%	87.4%	76.0%	73.8%	66.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	78.3%	87.4%	76.0%	73.8%	66.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	82.2%	87.4%	76.0%	73.8%	81.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	82.2%	87.4%	76.0%	73.8%	81.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	82.2%	87.4%	76.0%	73.8%	81.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	82.2%	87.4%	76.0%	73.8%	81.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	82.2%	87.4%	76.0%	45.7%	81.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	82.2%	87.4%	76.0%	45.7%	81.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	82.2%	87.4%	76.0%	45.7%	81.7%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	82.2%	87.4%	76.0%	45.7%	81.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	77.3%	87.4%	76.0%	45.7%	81.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	77.3%	87.4%	76.0%	45.7%	81.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	77.3%	87.4%	76.0%	45.7%	81.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	77.3%	87.4%	76.0%	45.7%	81.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:15+00:00	58.8%	99.0%	81.0%	80.2%	65.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	58.8%	99.0%	81.0%	80.2%	65.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	58.8%	99.0%	77.9%	80.2%	65.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	58.8%	99.0%	77.9%	80.2%	65.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	58.8%	99.0%	77.9%	80.2%	65.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	58.8%	99.0%	77.9%	80.2%	65.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	60.2%	99.0%	77.9%	62.5%	75.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	60.2%	99.0%	77.9%	62.5%	75.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	60.2%	99.0%	77.9%	62.5%	75.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	60.2%	99.0%	77.9%	62.5%	75.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	60.2%	99.0%	56.8%	62.5%	75.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	60.2%	99.0%	56.8%	62.5%	75.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	60.2%	99.0%	56.8%	62.5%	75.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	60.2%	99.0%	56.8%	62.5%	75.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	73.5%	99.0%	56.8%	62.5%	75.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	73.5%	99.0%	56.8%	62.5%	75.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	73.5%	99.0%	56.8%	62.5%	75.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:51+00:00	72.2%	94.6%	75.8%	46.0%	91.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	72.2%	94.6%	75.8%	46.0%	91.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	72.2%	94.6%	75.8%	46.0%	91.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	72.2%	94.6%	87.6%	46.0%	91.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	72.2%	94.6%	87.6%	46.0%	91.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	72.2%	94.6%	87.6%	46.0%	91.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	70.7%	94.6%	87.6%	45.2%	68.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	70.7%	94.6%	87.6%	45.2%	68.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	70.7%	94.6%	87.6%	45.2%	68.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	70.7%	94.6%	87.6%	45.2%	68.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	70.7%	94.6%	87.6%	45.2%	68.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	70.7%	94.6%	76.6%	45.2%	68.2%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	70.7%	94.6%	76.6%	45.2%	68.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	70.7%	94.6%	76.6%	45.2%	68.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	75.8%	94.6%	76.6%	45.2%	68.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	75.8%	94.6%	76.6%	45.2%	68.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	75.8%	94.6%	76.6%	45.2%	68.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	68.3°F	8.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	57.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	57.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	68%	56.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	54.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	53.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261023-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 55°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗