KBOI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

75%

73%

55%

41%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 68.7¢Risks 68.70u

HRESNO 31.3¢Risks 31.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +31.30u · HRES −31.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:26+00:00	65.5%	83.2%	62.3%	33.8%	75.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	65.5%	83.2%	66.0%	33.8%	75.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	65.5%	83.2%	66.0%	33.8%	75.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	65.5%	83.2%	66.0%	33.8%	75.9%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	81.7%	83.2%	66.0%	70.7%	55.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	81.7%	83.2%	66.0%	70.7%	55.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	81.7%	83.2%	66.0%	70.7%	55.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	81.7%	83.2%	66.0%	70.7%	55.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	81.7%	83.2%	66.0%	70.7%	55.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	81.7%	97.8%	67.4%	70.7%	55.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	81.7%	97.8%	67.4%	70.7%	55.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	81.7%	97.8%	67.4%	70.7%	55.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	44.1%	97.8%	67.4%	70.5%	55.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	44.1%	97.7%	67.3%	70.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:26+00:00	69.3%	80.3%	34.9%	14.6%	91.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	69.3%	80.3%	52.9%	14.6%	91.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	69.3%	80.3%	52.9%	14.6%	91.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	69.3%	80.3%	52.9%	14.6%	91.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:00	49.1%	80.3%	52.9%	30.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	49.1%	80.3%	52.9%	30.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	49.1%	80.3%	52.9%	30.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	49.1%	80.3%	52.9%	30.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:00	49.1%	80.3%	52.9%	30.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:14+00:00	49.1%	91.2%	56.4%	30.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	49.1%	91.2%	56.4%	30.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	49.1%	91.2%	56.4%	30.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	56.1%	91.2%	56.4%	30.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	56.1%	91.2%	56.4%	30.9%	83.3%
2026-10-20T04:05:31+00:00	60.3%	91.5%	57.5%	30.2%	52.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	60.3%	91.5%	57.5%	30.2%	52.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	60.3%	91.5%	64.7%	30.2%	52.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	60.3%	91.5%	64.7%	30.2%	52.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	60.3%	91.5%	64.7%	30.2%	52.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	68.9%	91.5%	64.7%	30.2%	55.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	68.9%	91.5%	64.7%	30.2%	55.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	68.9%	91.5%	64.7%	30.2%	55.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	68.9%	91.5%	64.7%	30.2%	55.0%
2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00	68.9%	96.4%	61.7%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	68.9%	96.4%	61.7%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	68.9%	96.4%	61.7%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	68.9%	96.4%	61.7%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	68.9%	96.4%	61.7%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	68.9%	96.4%	61.7%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-20T15:32:40+00:00	68.9%	96.3%	61.7%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-20T16:18:01+00:00	68.9%	96.3%	61.7%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-20T17:03:30+00:00	75.2%	96.3%	73.4%	41.1%	55.0%
2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00	75.2%	96.3%	73.4%	41.1%	55.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	69.9°F	7.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	59.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	58.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	57.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	55%	57.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	56.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	55.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261023-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 57°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗