KBOI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

75%

73%

55%

41%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 68.7¢Risks 68.70u

HRESNO 31.3¢Risks 31.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +31.30u · HRES −31.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	55.9%	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	79.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	15.6%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	34.8%	45.3%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	66.4%	44.4%	40.3%	—	63.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	30.4%	24.9%	67.0%	—	86.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	44.7%	98.9%	37.2%	—	69.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	94.1%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	57.1%	93.1%	42.9%	—	49.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	93.5%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	88.8%	75.5%	36.9%	—	32.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	79.2%	48.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	74.5%	35.4%	34.6%	—	40.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	86.0%	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	37.3%	59.1%	54.6%	—	40.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	80.4%	69.9%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	48.0%	68.7%	51.0%	33.9%	61.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	72.6%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	49.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	69.9°F	7.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	59.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	58.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	57.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	55%	57.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	56.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	55.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261023-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 57°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗