KBOI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

75%

54%

19%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 46.8¢Risks 46.85u

HRESNO 53.2¢Risks 53.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +53.15u · HRES −53.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	44.1%	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	52.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	9.0%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	23.3%	32.4%	—	—	63.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	52.8%	31.1%	27.5%	—	49.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	18.9%	14.8%	52.9%	—	77.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	30.3%	97.1%	23.9%	—	55.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	88.0%	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	41.3%	86.0%	28.1%	—	33.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	86.5%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	78.7%	60.7%	22.5%	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	65.0%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	58.7%	20.8%	20.2%	—	24.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	73.6%	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	21.6%	40.9%	36.4%	—	24.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	64.8%	51.9%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	29.6%	50.0%	32.1%	18.3%	42.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	54.0%	—	—	56.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	86%	65.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	66.4°F	11.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	59.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	59.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	54.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	50.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261023-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗