KBOI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

75%

54%

19%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 46.8¢Risks 46.85u

HRESNO 53.2¢Risks 53.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +53.15u · HRES −53.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:04+00:00	75.4%	73.7%	27.2%	32.0%	60.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	75.4%	75.2%	27.2%	32.0%	60.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	75.4%	75.2%	27.2%	32.0%	60.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	75.4%	75.2%	19.1%	32.0%	60.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	75.4%	75.2%	19.1%	32.0%	60.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	75.4%	75.2%	19.1%	32.0%	60.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	55.6%	75.2%	19.1%	8.1%	85.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	55.6%	75.2%	19.1%	8.1%	85.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	55.6%	75.2%	19.1%	8.1%	85.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	55.6%	75.2%	19.1%	8.1%	85.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	55.6%	75.2%	19.1%	8.1%	85.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	55.6%	75.2%	19.1%	8.1%	85.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	55.6%	75.2%	19.1%	8.1%	85.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	55.6%	75.2%	19.1%	8.1%	85.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	54.0%	75.2%	19.1%	8.1%	85.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	54.0%	75.2%	19.1%	8.1%	85.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	54.0%	75.2%	19.1%	8.1%	85.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	54.0%	75.2%	19.1%	8.1%	85.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	86%	65.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	66.4°F	11.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	59.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	59.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	54.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	50.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261023-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗